The Subjunctive

A Must Read

2008-11-16T14:20:00.000-05:00

http://cift.haas.berkeley.edu/docs/nabi/nabi-Nov11.pdf

The beginning of the holographic screen

2008-11-11T23:40:00.001-05:00

I think the intermediate phase is definitely going to be about projectors like this one. They will not be stand alone though but will be built into the devices themselves (netbooks, pmp, etc).

The Financial Crisis - A Brief Explanation of a Simple Cause

2008-09-24T15:17:00.003-04:00

You are a CEO. You're probably in high demand. You get a new gig. Probably comes with a boat-load of stock/stock options, bonus schemes, and high pay. In general, the grandeur of your pay will largely depends on how much you raise EPS and concurrently the stock price. Supposedly, this aligns your incentives with your shareholders. But there are two fundamental and simple points of economics that are generally overlooked. The first is the matter of time horizons. The second is that not all returns are equal. You can't look at return without considering how much risk was taken to achieve those returns. Let me give you two analogies.

You arrive in Vegas with a bag full of other people's money. These people sent you out there because you have a reputation as a wizard gambler. After all, you went out there last year with some of their friends' money and came back with quite a bounty. The deal is simple. They paid for your trip, all expenses, and also gave you a fixed sum of money up front just to go out there. They are also promising you a large percentage of the winnings. Furthermore, they've put a long term contract in front of you to be their official gambler if you come back with substantial winnings. This job will include a very cushy salary, executive residence in Vegas, driver, etc.

As a rational economic agent (not necessarily a moral one), the most logical path is simple. Bet BIG. If you lose, you still walk away with the substantial fixed sum you got up front, and will most likely will still be in high-demand as a whiz gambler in other circles. So you go to the roulette table and wager all your money on black. Bam. It hits black and you've already doubled your investors' (or shall we call them speculators) money. That a 100% return, a large chunk of which is yours. If you were really smart you'd simply enjoy the rest of your time by the pool-side and return home with a nice bag of cash. Yet, you might feel the need to really bring home the purse. So you do it again. BAM. You win again. You've now quadrupled their money.

You return home and are luaded as a real whiz. Many groups of investors now want you to be their gambling pro and start comepting with eachother by throwing ridiculous sums of money and deals at you. You are made for life. The investors don't realize that you've basically just been the beneficiary of dumb luck. In fact, you took outsized risk to achieve those returns. If it all went to hell, you really lose nothing. If you got lucky, you get almost equal benefits to your shareholders. No risk, all return, for you. Pretty much the opposite for those who staked you.

The reality in the corporate world is even worse. In Roulette, if you gambled it all on black and lost, those results are rather immediate. In the corporate world, most CEO's can pursue disastrous policies and yet forestall the consequences for a few years. When the wheel hits red, they'll already be at their next job with a higher salary and a Midas reputation.

Yet, before we put all the blame on CEO's, let's think like a CEO for a minute. Let's look at another scenario.

You've just become CEO of a company that is either flying high or doing poorly. The shareholders and board are on your back. They either want you to turn the ship around or take it to new heights. Moreso, you're competitors have come out with some new products that are just minting money. They want you to get in the game.

You are actually an intelligent and capable CEO, and so you undertake a thorough analysis of what's going on in the market. You realize that recent industry practices are irresponsible and illusory and are no different than betting it all on black. You now have two options:

Attempt to explain this to your board and shareholders and stay out of the game. Your earnings will probably suffer as compared to your competitors. As their stocks soar to new heights and their management is praised in the media, your stock craters and you and your team are the dogs of the street. The shareholders are up in arms. Their neighbors are driving Ferraris with this new-found wealth and you've sunk their ship. They want you out immediately and they want your head. No golden parachute for you.
Or you do the same analysis and realize that you are simply that gambler in vegas. If you bet it all, you will probably make tons of money, please your shareholders, and walk out a hero. You assume you'll be out by the time the ship sinks. Even if you're not, your competitors ships will most likely sink simulatenously. You'll all blame the market and the short sellers and walk out with your golden parachutes and reputations for taking your companies to new heights. On to the next job.

Unless you're a masochist, most rational people would choose option 2. Now I'm not trying to say that no CEO's add value, or that they're all adding reward simply by taking risk. I'm just trying to point out that there is an insitutional problem at play here that's much larger than just this credit crisis. It's deeply embedded in the current structure of our entire economy. In the seperation of a centralized and powerful management from dispersed shareholders. In the power of institutional investors who are deeply in cahoots with the very management teams they are supposed to be wary of.

I'm not saying that CEO's are not to blame for choosing option 1. But, we should realize, that the system we all support, the ignorance of financial and mathematical matter that we all embrace, and the blind eye we all turn when it seems that every American might just have a Ferrari one day, are what push that CEO towards option 2.

P.S. - One more point. The CEO's that do choose option 1 probably don't survive for very long in the system. Thus, we end up with option 2 only CEO's. The same can be argued for corporations that forgo profits for moral purposes. In the face of ruthless competitors they simply won't survive and thus we'll only be left with the immoral companies.

Apple's Trojan Horse Strategy

2008-07-22T22:28:00.003-04:00

Cloud-computing, the buzzword of Q1 2008, has recently been gaining a lot of traction (if you saw the movie August, you get that reference). The most notable feature, or missing feature, of the latest line of mini-notebooks (Acer One, EEE PC, HP Mini, and soon to be DELL E) is a high storage hard-drive. For the most part they come standard with around a 4-8GB solid state drive, upgradable to around 32GB; the current Ipod classic on the other hand comes in a 160GB version. Although innovation in the storage sector has revolved around fitting more storage in less space (the CEO of Seagate is very bullish on the idea that cloud computing will only increase the need for storage on the client side), these new Mini-notebooks are a very interesting indicator as to where the entire segment of portable devices is heading.

This is where the IPhone 3G and Ipod Touch come in. 16GB may ultimately be enough. I recently signed up for the Rhapsody service and I must say, aside from the occasional unavailable album, to ability to have almost any song available on demand is really quite something. This is the future of the music industry; the subscription model will be the last one standing. Having to pay $.99 per song versus pirating it is one equation. But, paying a flat fee monthly and having an entire high quality, virus free, catalogue is entirely another. Ultimately, as long as that music is truly available anywhere, anytime, on any device, people will adapt the subscription model. Although there is certainly something romantic notion lost in not having albums that you own to pass down, I don't think your Itunes library was filling that void anyway. Your kids probably won't care much as the entire music library of all time will be available.

That is largely what the Iphone is all about. It's not merely a replacement for your PDA/phone, it's Apple's realization that the Ipod was a dying concept. Same for the Itunes store. By putting a device in your hand that presumably will always be connected, Apple was laying the groundwork for what will be the next phase of it's media strategy: Itunes subscription service. Available on your Apple computers, your AppleTV, your Iphone, and your soon to be Apple controlled home media center (an actual TV to bypass the set-top box?). This model will probably also include a video subscription service to rival Netflix, among other things. Who knows, the entire thing might all be a packaged deal (maybe even with your Broadband/Wireless access).

Nokia has been trying to reposition its handsets in a similar way, becoming not only a hardware provider, but also a media provider. Although Apple may not be in the media game for that much longer than Nokia, the closed system approach that Jobs has developed is why they are ultimately better positioned to win the game. Nokia has no skin in any other hardware/software game; they have no ecosystem. Apple has rapidly been putting its products at every step of the chain. Jobs has long understood that the future is about the entire chain, not disparate devices. Cloud-computing, the storing of the actual media on the server side, will help realize this reality. When the time comes to choose who will be delivering your content from the cloud, Apple has already placed their shiny and well designed Trojan horse in your hands, your bag, and probably your house.

On the heels of my bus post

2008-07-02T11:17:00.002-04:00

I see this:

http://www.carectomy.com/index.php/Train/All-Aboard-the-Train-that-Never-Stops

Sounds a bit too complicated to me, but it's heading in the right direction. How the people move from the pod to the train and vice versa I don't fully understand. For instance, let's take the NYC subway as an example. You get on this pod at West 4th street, but are planning on going to Columbus circle. Once in the pod, you need to get on to the train itself, as this pod will be dislodged at the next stop, but you have many more to go. So you have to get off the pod and get on the train, while those looking to exit at the next stop need to get into the pod and off the train. Considering the size of the pod and its position on top of the train, it sounds like a pretty complicated, messy, and crowded process. I'm sure this is a beta though, and they will figure out a way around this problem.

Another It's About Time.....

2008-06-30T22:53:00.001-04:00

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/26/exclusive-peek-at-nrme-location-based-twitter-without-the-noise/

Post to follow

It's about time.....

2008-06-30T21:43:00.003-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/technology/30sony.html

Post to follow.

Your car is surfing the Internet

2008-06-25T10:15:00.002-04:00

And so it begins......
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wificar25-2008jun25,1,2980140.story

Invention of the Day

2008-06-20T19:52:00.005-04:00

So I got off the subway today and figured I would transfer to the bus in order to go the 8 blocks to my house (I was feeling lazy). Luckily, when I exited the subway station, I saw the bus waiting right across the street. I raced to catch it, and made it before the doors closed, but noticed that it was packed to the gills. I decided I was better off walking than taking part in the human tuna can.

A funny thing then happened. I ended up walking the 8 blocks significantly faster than the bus was able to drive. I noticed that there were 3 main things that slowed down the bus:

1) Having to load passengers
2) Having the passengers take turns swiping their Metrocards (50% probably do it wrong the first time and get one of the most annoying beeping sounds ever synthesized)
3) The huge bus having to wait for a traffic opening in order to pull out from the curbside bus stop.

I thus present you with a vision of the bus of the future. I was discussing with my girlfriend today how every generation thinks they have reached the technological apogee, and can't envision of any future innovation. But, they always do come. So here are the three solutions to the above mentioned problems:

1,2) Based on a variety of sensors and telecommunication, the bus will convey in real-time to the various stops along the route how many seats/spots are available. People will arrive at the bus station and swipe their phones or some other form of virtual currency systems to reserve a spot. They will also see in real time on a digital map how far away the bus is (and could potentially choose which bus they want to ride on).

3) There will then be some (glowing) markers on the floor where they stand as the bus is approaching. This will Star-Trek like particalize them into the spots on the bus. The bus will not have to stop in traffic but will simply continue driving. If the Star-Trek technology is not available, and the bus does have to pull over for some sort of loading contraption, it will be in communication with all the cars driving by, and they will be forced to stop as the bus is pulling out. This can be done literally, by reducing the cars speed (don't worry, it's safe, as the cars all around the passing car will react to this as well), or by warning drivers that if they don't stop an e-ticket will be filed and e-mailed to them.

Walla. We solved the bus problem. But then I realize, that if we have the Star-Trek technology, who needs a bus. Beam me up Scottie!

P.S. - For the record, I found that image after I wrote this post and searched Google Images for "Beam me up Scottie." Apparently, I have a mind double.

Pascal's Wager and Global Warming

2008-06-18T23:42:00.005-04:00

For those unfamiliar with that dashing man, he is Blaise Pascal. Aside from his many contribution to philosophy, mathematics, etc, he is probably best known for Pascal's Wager.

Pascal's wager is simply an application of Expectation Decision Theory for those of you familiar with economics/probability. It's a very simple theory. Essentially, when computing the potential return of almost any decision, you simply need to take into account two things: a) the probability of the various outcomes and b) their payoff.

This translates into an equation where P(x) is the probability of outcome x, and R(x) is the return of outcome x as such:

Expected return = (P(x1) * R(x1))+(P(x2)*R(x2))+(P(xn)*R(xn))

Pascal, not only one of the first to really use and understand decision theory, but also maybe the first to insert infinity into the mix. Essentially, if the return of any one of your outcomes is infinitely large (or close to it), then the probability of that option is irrelevant, as anything times infinity is essentially infinity. So basically the decision ends up being a no brainer.

Pascal's infinite was the alpha and omega, g-d. Essentially, Pascal's Wager can be broken down as follows. If g-d does exist, he is clearly the infinite. So regardless of the rational probability of his existence, from an expected decision standpoint, we should adhere to religion as its reward/punishment is so grave.

In other words, if g-d exists, and you follow him, HEAVEN. If not, HELL (not necessarily fire and brimstone, but some eternal negative). Those are pretty eternally good/bad, and therefore it probably makes sense, regardless of the probability of g-d's rational existence, to go with it. Pascal took it as far as to say that if g-d doesn't exist, and you abide by religion, you lose nothing, so it's a win win. I'm sure no one would agree with that today as a life predicated on religion is quite different than one without.

I am not writing to defend this theory, and obviously like any other theory, it has been criticized sufficiently since its inception. Yet, it is a great paradigm for the problem of global warming. A problem that if what they say is true (or even kind of true), has eternal implications, at least for us humans. Maybe g-d (if you believe in him), can wait millions of years for the minute probability of life forming again, but for most of us, that's an infinite amount of time. So essentially, the outcome of global warming, if it's true, is the end of life and earth as we know it. Sounds pretty damn infinite.

As we've established, when we're dealing with an infinite outcome, the probability is irrelevant. Maybe the scientists are 50% right, maybe their 10% right, and maybe when they say 20 years they mean 50. Who cares?!?!?!?! We are talking about the end, kaput, finale. It's an idea that's hard to comprehend. We humans are wired to assume that tomorrow will pretty much be like yesterday. It's quite hard for us to imagine, and alas except, anything different. This may be the only area where all humans are skeptics.

So to use the decision theory approach once again, let's assume global warming is true. If we take all the necessary steps to fight it, HEAVEN ON EARTH (literally). If not, THE END. So we should probably fight it. But what if it really is all a big sham, or not a big sham but largely scientifically inaccurate? Here is where our equation differs from Pascal's. He claimed that if g-d does not exist, and we believe, we lose nothing. I think most people disagree. Yet, with global warming, that just might be true. Even if global warming is false, or simply a bit exaggerated, are the steps that we are going to take so bad.

Is clean air bad? Conservation? Environmentally Responsibility? An end to McMansions and SUV's? An end to our oil dependency that skews our national politics and our wallets? Sustainability? A little respect for Nature? Innovation of hundred year old industries? Sustainable energy policy? The list goes on. Sure a few big wig oil executives and some other people with a vested interest (and quite deep pockets) in the status quo will fund lots of studies and spend lots of ad dollars to try and dissuade us. It's pretty sad to think that some people value another summer house or nice car over the human race.

It seems that the debate is over. Who cares if global warming is true or not. Regardless, the benefits of fighting it are both socially and economically positive in the long run. If it ends up being nothing more than something that motivated us, America, to get off our lazy (but nicely cushioned) behinds and finally see a tomorrow that's not like yesterday, it really is Pascal's win win.

Another Netflix Update

2008-06-03T00:26:00.002-04:00

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/5/time_warner_cable_touts_web_to_tv_device

It seems that the television set is going to be the next major battleground. I think Time Warner's announcement is rather important because the cable operators are generally the point of first entry, whether it be the modem or cable box. Furthermore, they are already ubiquitous in most homes. They are staring down a tremendous opportunity to fend off the likes of NetFlix and AppleTV from eating their lunch with IPTV.

Unfortunately, history has shown the telcos and cable companies unable to innovate effectively in the consumer space. Bureaucracy. Wall Street. Whatever the cause, they just seem unable to get their act together. It is similar to the fate of the newspapers. Instead of taking their product into the future, they continue to try to defend the past. There is certainly the psychological barrier of the endowment effect. It's hard to let go of what was once a cash cow. You simply can't believe that it's going to disappear after watching it flourish for so many years. History has seen many industries fall by the wayside. Makes you respect the likes of GE that much more. Will the cable companies be able to avoid this fate before it's too late?

The Holographic Screen Revisited

2008-05-29T16:13:00.003-04:00

Ray Kurzweil, my personal tech hero, agreeing with me about the mobile phone:

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/may2008/gb20080519_782410.htm?chan=globalbiz_europe+index+page_top+stories

You have to cherish these. Even more motivation to really finish the piece in its entirety.

Follow up on Netflix

2008-05-28T14:21:00.003-04:00

Here are two interesting pieces of news out today related to the Netflix piece:

http://newteevee.com/2008/05/27/sony-tru2way-no-more-set-top-boxes/

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/05/28/amazon-ready-to-unbox-video-streaming-for-digital-movies/

I hope to write a little more about it later today. In brief, there are two trends that seem to continually be popping up.

1) Convergence - as the internet platform continues to emerge and develop, we will have to stop thinking of consumer devices in terms of purpose. Forget the labels that subdivide. No more TV v. set-top box v. (HD)-DVD player v. Video game console. There is hardware that can deliver the internet/software experience to you. That's it. Some are smaller. Some are bigger. Some are in your living room. Some are in the bedroom. But you can access anything digital (and offline stuff as well) from anywhere, anytime. Obviously this will happen in stages. But it is a major trend to watch.

2) Ubiquity - Content will become ubiquitous while the distributors will fall to the background. Forget the notion of websites and destinations. Think of widgets, RSS feeds, and mashups. The future is in the customized experience. You will be able to download that movie directly to your TV in seconds. The Itunes closed platform will break down. How you decide who you get your content from (Itunes, Amazon, etc) will be an interesting part of the transition? Obviously it will continue to drive the price of digital content down to it's marginal cost of $0. Advertising will continue to play a big role. But why would I go to Amazon vs. Itunes vs. etc to get a movie? What will be the differentiator if it's not price or platform lock-in?

NetFlix wants to take over your TV

2008-05-20T22:10:00.005-04:00

I want to complete the series of posts on the future of the internet really soon. I hope to do it this weekend. In the meantime, I'm going to take a different approach and talk a little bit about current events.

I generally try to eschew this practice as the mainstream press + blogs will generally beat it to death. Yet, in the spirit of one of my favorite blogs, I Cringley, when there is a larger trend behind the events, I'm glad to dig into it.

Netflix announced today the release of their much anticipated set-top box. Essentially, as long as you are a Netflix subscriber and are willing to pay $100 for the box, it gives you the ability to watch Netflix's library of streamable videos on your television. As the mainstream press has pointed out, the product is not perfect.

It is limited to their catalog of approximately 10,000 streamable videos. This is a much smaller selection than their 100,000 movies, and from experience, these 10,000 movies for the most part suck.
The device does not contain a hard-drive but rather streams just as you would on your computer. If your internet connection is slow or interrupted, it will significantly affect your playback.

The reasons for this move are obvious. It is based on an apothegm that I've been preaching for a long time. "When it comes to digital content, if you're in distribution, you're dead." The marginal cost of distributing digital content is essentially zero.

This is largely affecting two very different industries. The first are those providing the bandwidth, essentially ISP's and Telecom's. As the bandwidth becomes a commoditized dumb pipe, their entrenched annuity revenue model is breaking down. Look no further than AOL's troubles as well as the failure of the walled garden strategy of the major mobile providers. This business will only be further eroded by Google's and Clearwire's efforts in the WiMax space.

The second are those in the business of distributing digital content. When Napster launched, the clock started running on these businesses. The troubles of the music industry, especially the retailers, have received much attention. The movie rental business, with a once promising Blockbuster Inc. as the example, is succumbing to a similar fate. Book retailers, notably Barnes & Nobles with its many recent store closings, have been decimated by Amazon's success. I think the implications will be much deeper and wider than we've seen so far, and will effect industries that are not pure distribution plays. We may discuss these industries in a further post.

I think bringing up Amazon at this juncture is important as it's vertical position is largely analogous to Netflix; they are both intermediaries between the past and the future of content distribution, and are both (presciently) acutely aware of it. Amazon's main business has been distributing digitizable content (i.e. books and recently music/movies) among many other ancillary products. They simply took the next step and leveraged the power of retailing on the internet thus reducing the traditional overhead costs while simultaneously . Furthermore, they innovated and integrated technologically to improve the traditionally stagnant distribution model, allowing them to pass on some savings to consumers without severely compromising their financial position. These lower prices were an important weapon in persuading consumers to trust the online model.

But Bezos is no fool, hence the Kindle. He is well aware that to date Amazon has been nothing but an intermediary (an extremely innovative one at that), and is trying to position the company to be part of the future as well. After delivering a rousing talk at an NYU alumni event recently, I asked Bezos about the inevitably of the "Napster effect" spreading into books and whether he was furthering his own demise with the Kindle. Bezos, being the guy that he is, brilliantly responded with an apothegm of his own, "We'd rather eat our own lunch than have someone else eat it." If only the music executives had been so wise. Bezos realizes that as most if not all digital content becomes free, the $ will not be in delivering or owning the content, as much as in owning the "real estate" where it is displayed (and the data generated thereto). This is what the Kindle is all about. I would be interested to see whether Bezos will tackle the music section by building it into the Kindle, releasing a separate device, or leaving it be. What he will do with video is also interesting, especially considering Netflix's latest efforts.

Netflix too was an intermediary between the future (embodied by their set-top box effort), and the past of Blockbuster. They also transferred a brick and mortar industry to the internet, and innovated in distribution. I still get a tremendous kick out of their envelopes everytime I use them. And they also realize that DVD's are a dying product as all digital content will be distributed via the internet in real-time. They want to be the ones controlling the display.

I would view their current effort as a hardware beta. I have no doubt that overtime they plan to release the whole library and potentially add hard-drive capabilities. Furthermore, they will possibly build in the ability to stream internet video, and potentially layer on some applications related to traditional television viewing. In general, I predict that we are on the verge of tremendous innovation in the TV hardware space and in the development of a platform for application development in this space. Television, although not traditionally seen as such, is simply another digitally distributed product. It is a matter of time before the effects of the internet are felt here as well. Google, as always, is making headway in this space as well.

The funny thing is that both Netflix's box and the Kindle are not the ultimate future, but simply another intermediary point on the trajectory. What is the future? Massive device convergence. We will no longer think of individually in terms of a book reader, a music player, a laptop, a desktop, a set-top box, a television, a monitor, even a key and credit card. Think only of a multi-purpose hardware platform with various functionality. What does this all mean? It's all part of the future of the internet, and is something I will tackle in the next post. Until then.

It's been too long.....

2008-05-16T11:02:00.003-04:00

Way too long since the last post. Going to try to commit to doing one a day starting this Sunday. I find that the only way to stay consistent in posting is to set that type of goal. (I actually took that idea from Fred Wilson). I also have been noticing lately that a lot of the stuff I have been writing and thinking about is showing up in the mainstream press. Most notably the holographic screen idea and the future of the mobile phone as "everything" showing up in Vinod Khosla's speech at the Top 10 Tech Trends conference. I really want to talk about this stuff, and don't want it to seem like a second act. Looking forward to it. In the meantime, hope everyone has a good weekend.

In the meantime...

2008-03-03T13:20:00.001-05:00

I promise to at least post 1 of the last 3 pieces of this series tonight. Until then, there is a great article about the burgeoning uses of RFID in the International Herald Tribune. It tips the iceberg of what I believe RFID is capable of in a retail environment.

Another tidbit from that Bionic Contact Lense Article

2008-02-27T15:42:00.006-05:00

" The amount of investment in miniaturized projector technologies bares testimony to the prospects for this market and we have seen numerous prototypes showcased recently by the likes of Microvision, 3M, Texas Instruments, Explay, Neochroma, Digislide, Light Blue Optics and from research labs such as the Fraunhofer Institute for Photonic Microsystems . Though the microprojection area promises the ability to project a large screen on any flat surface, we have yet to see commercially available products and the technology wont suit everyone, partially because theyre still not quite small enough, and partially because of privacy issues -- projecting delicate company information onto an airport terminal wall, for example, might not be a good idea. "

This is the first step towards the eventual full-sized holographic touchscreen that will be able to project into open space (not against the wall), and will boast translucence for privacy and clarity reasons. See video below for a demo of TI's mini projector.

An Update

2008-02-27T12:41:00.001-05:00

First of all, I saw this article today "Gates Sees Diminished Role for Keyboards", and it seemed to perfectly fit the tone and theme of this piece. It's nice to know that Bill agrees.

Secondly, I apologize for the lag in finishing this piece, been a busy week, but it will be done by the end of the weekend. Hope you've enjoyed it so far.

Update: Here is another article that appeared recently that fits with the overall trend of this piece. Originally, when I was considering how to solve the screen problem, I was thinking along the lines of some sort of glasses (like the ones used in virtual reality), or some sort of piece inserted into the eye. I eventually abandoned this idea because I figured that if the overall idea is that this mobile computer will be with people at all times in all aspects, they don't want a precondition of use being visual impairment (something people don't like in general). Thus the holographic screen was the champion. I think the contact idea is a cool one, but I only see it being applied in military and industrial setting, not consumer.

The Next Internet - Part 4 - Redefinition of Computing

2008-02-18T01:53:00.012-05:00

The advancement of Moore's law via current and new methods (quantum and organic computing) will allow for a device as small as current mobile phones to pack twice the punch of today's notebooks.
The critical factors will then be solving the tremendous amount of heat produced as these chips shrink and providing them with enough energy.
We already outlined two potential solution to the energy problem. Either the emergence of new fuel cells that can either internally recharge or use the elements in the air itself to recharge, or many other innovations being explored in this field; or, the emergence of wireless electricity (see link in previous post), allowing devices to recharge without being plugged in when in range of the electrical transmitter. Wireless electricity is the most beneficial solution, as it further reduces the size of the device because a smaller battery can be used.
As far as the heat problem, there is already a tremendous amount of progress in this area See here.
The emergence of cloud computing will remove the need for a hard-drive installed within the device. Thus this further reduces product size, battery consumption, and increases mobility. [It also increases the importance of being connected at all times. Small Flash drives boasting high capacity will probably be included as emergency and backup storage].

The Holographic Touch Screen

Kate Moss Hologram Runway Show for Alexander Mcqueen

This is definitely where it begins to sound Trekkie, but it really is a lot more realistic than it seems (see video above), and it will be the most important factor in the redefinition of mobile computing. Imagine a device as small as today's mobile phones producing an image as crisp as a 20" LCD [already you may be seeing how television will be transformed as well]. No need for the IPhone's creative way of showing web pages. In fact, no need for any of the site's that are specifically tailored to the mobile web. The Next Internet will also be the Unified Net and the innovation of the holographic scree, which will drive the innovation of Mobile Computing, will be The Tipping Point.

The touchscreen functionality is actually even simpler, and it even exists today. Optical sensors, integrated with the holographic image renderer, will be able to tell what part of the screen (in thin air) that you are pressing. I presume an optical keyboard much like the one available today will also be used, although wireless peripherals may still be used in the home. Furthermore, the rise in voice-to-text accuracy will do away with much of the need for day to day keyboard use.

Finally, this device will incorporate biometrics, most likely in the form of fingerprint recognition, but there is also the potential for voice, and even iris scanning ( and eventually DNA and other forms). This will be crucial in safeguarding all the data that your new true all-in-one device can access, as well as in allowing this new device (which hereto shall be referred to as IFuture) to take on the many transformative uses that I envision.

I have decided to end this post here, and to use the next post to describe the transformation that this new IFuture will create. In that discussion we will look at the future of Television as well. The final post (or maybe two posts) will discuss what the web will look like in the New Internet as well as some interesting things that will emerge from it all. I apologize for continually stretching out the series, but I do it for the reader's enjoyment as otherwise the post's would get too long. Chew slowly and enjoy.

The Next Internet - Part 3 - Putting it all Together

2008-02-14T21:00:00.010-05:00

[Disclaimer: This blog is formatted to show newer stories first, and that generally makes sense, unless your writing a series with parts that build on each other. So please go back and read Part 1&2. Some of you may want to be cowboys and dive straight into part 3. I don't know if it'll make much sense, but enjoy.]

When you put it all together, this is what the The Next Internet will look like:

Wireless high-bandwidth internet will be everywhere. No more dead-zones. No more streaming problems. No more debates about the merits of 3G. As Mark Cuban pointed out, this is probably the most important development, as all other factors depend on it.

Almost every electronic device you can think of will be connected to the internet via their own IP protocols, and will be able to interact with other devices. Non-electronic devices will be able to communicate with the internet via RFID tags, but on a more limited basis.

Imagine this: Your alarm-clock goes off and the coffee maker starts while your personalized electronic paper is delivered to your e-book reader (or your Microsoft Surface) and all other screens in your home. Your toothbrush is aware of what you ate for breakfast and uses the proper cleaning mode. Your car is activated as you leave your home, and adjusts itself based on the current weather report.

Anything and everything that is connected will be locatable. There are literally thousands of innovations that will come of this, the most obvious one being location based advertising. There will be tremendous effects in terms of social interaction as well. Finally, to continue from the previous example, as you pull into your driveway after a long day of work, your shower or maybe your oven will automatically start. If you want to alter something from your usual setting, simply punch it into the screen in your car.

Every single individual will have the equivalent of an online SS#, which will be their ID for almost every action in life, both on and off the net ( there will be little if anything that is off the net). This ID will obviously be the default login for all your web-activity, but will also be used when making purchases at brick and mortar stores, or even possibly when receiving a parking ticket. This ID will be the key in allowing all devices associated with the actual YOU to interact. In the previous example, your car and home can only communicate because they are registered under your ID. These ID's will be managed by a few OpenID providers, but there will be little if any difference between them. An ID from any provider will work in all the same ways and places.

The idea of hard-drives within devices will become virtually obsolete except for some amount of emergency flash storage (which will still be rather large in capacity but small in size). Almost all data will be stored in the cloud. Every individual, via their ID, will have an allocated amount of storage in the cloud for FREE. This will be the default storage for all their files, including potentially their software and even operating system. This storage will either be managed by the very same OpenID providers, or in some sort of partnership with the storage companies (Amazon is making strides in this area already). Furthermore, all data generated from your activities with anything connected to the net (almost everything) will be stored here. This will require a massive amount of protocols, and new data types, but I have no doubt that it will be the easy part. The hard part will be the privacy concerns.

Possibly the most revolutionary part of the Next Internet will be its implications on mobile computing. Currently, aside from the lack of true high bandwidth wireless, the greatest obstacles preventing innovation in the mobile category are screen size and battery life. There is only so big a screen you can give a mobile device and still call it mobile. The IPhone took an innovative approach to this problem via a full touchscreen and a browser that simulates a desktop layout. Although this is a fantastic solution for the short term, it is merely a temporary fix. Yet, even the IPhone has been hampered by battery life problems. The more computing power our hand held devices have, the more energy they require. Unfortunately, there is no analogous Moore's law in the world of electro-chemistry.

I will continue with the future of Mobile Computing and Television in the next post. I will then conclude my thoughts in what will be the 5th and final part of this series. After I conclude this series, I will start to write more about the products, events, and ideas of today. I had to get this grand scheme out of my system before I could dig into the present. Furthermore, the possible future is often a good framework through which to evaluate where we are, who is positioned to succeed going forward, and who will fall behind.

The Next Internet - Part 2 - Prerequisites

2008-02-13T16:41:00.019-05:00

Greater overall global bandwidth and Cuban's greater throughput to homes, coupled with:
The emergence of a truly global blanket of wireless coverage ( i.e. 700 Mhz for the US).
Almost every single thing you know (and thus idea/transaction) being online via:

IP connectivity for everything you can imagine.

The emergence of cost-effective and integrated RFID.

A few OpenID providers managing all logins and personal data.
The emergence of cloud computing (already in progress).
The prevalence of GPS or other location based tracking.

The following hardware factors will be key drivers:

Continued reduction in chip sizes with concurrent reduction of the heat problem.
A solution to the "my cell battery runs out in 5 seconds when I surf the net" problem, via wireless electricity or new fuel cells. [ Full paper on wireless electricity]
The emergence of holographic (what some call volumetric) touchscreen technology [bare with me].
Complete redefinition of mobile computing and telephony due to all of the above.
The emergence of biometrics in our everyday lives (see IBM's fingerprint password).

The following will be the key psychological drivers:

A redefinition of privacy (Facebook has begun this transformation).
A change in our perception of currency (e-currency).

Some of these factors are certainly prerequisites to others. For cloud computing to truly thrive, the bandwidth and wireless requirements will have to be met. The battery and small screen problems will have to be solved for the redefinition of mobile computing. I portend that these developments will follow the pattern I mentioned in the last post.

The Next Internet - Part 1 - Introduction

2008-02-13T15:10:00.002-05:00

Mark Cuban [Disclaimer: To paraphrase the sentiments of my French friend, "I love this guy." Just see the picture to the left.] is constantly informing us on his blog that the internet is dead. He did so most recently on February 10th with his post titled, " The Internet is Officially Dead & Boring." He argued it most eloquently in a post on Aug 24th 2007, in which he concluded:

"So, let me repeat, The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead for the foreseeable future. The Internet is boring. That is not a bad thing. In fact its easy to make the argument that its a great thing. That it has become the utility that the people who worked to get it started firmly believed it would. That it finally is the platform for any number of mundane applications that are easy to write and that anyone can use and trust."

He also makes sure that people will not misconstrue the implications of his statement when he states, "Just as a reminder to some, Myspace, Facebook, Youtube, etc are not the Internet. They are software applications that run on the Internet. Just like MicroSoft Excel is a software application that runs on MicroSoft and Apple operating systems." To summarize his idea: the changes are occurring on the Internet, not to the Internet.

I happen to agree with Mark in terms of the Internet of today. I even somewhat agree with what he thinks is the greatest barrier to innovation when he writes, " The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead. They are dead until bandwidth throughput to the home reaches far higher numbers than the vast majority of broadband users get today." He sees it as a bandwidth issue, and that it certainly is. But it is also about so much more.

The factors that are going to drive the next wave of innovation are already being shaped. When we talk about innovation we often hear the words "wave", "period", or "burst" being used and that is no coincidence. Most great inventions will seemingly stagnate for a period of time from their original "burst." They follow a pattern often seen in nature referred to as a J-Curve. Others describe this effect using analogies from the ideas of entropy and chaos in physics. What they are all getting at is that the period of stagnation is merely an illusion. It is Taleb's black-box of history.

In reality, these are periods of nascent ideas and disjointed innovation. The building blocks for the next wave are being shaped, often by companies unaware of each other, and probably unaware of the impact they will have. Startups are experimenting and learning from every failure. The success of one factor (could be a few simultaneously, as it often is) is that final straw with the disproportionate effect, whether it be a successful innovation, government policy, or cultural shift.

It will be precisely the next step that another 5 companies were unknowingly waiting for to become viable. A chain effect is unleashed. Suddenly, innovators in completely unrelated fields, realize, that the landscape shift they needed has come from where they least expected. The next "wave" is unleashed. It too will stabilize 5-10 years out. But, as long as there are smart people, an entrepreneurial spirit, and fair reward for one's work, Innovation never stops.

[A great example of this innovation process is evidenced by the experience of the Human Genome Project, which saw rapid achievements at the tail-end after a long period of stagnation. It is important to realize that failures, if studied, are truly incremental learnings; after a certain critical point, they can be pieced together to achieve seemingly sudden bursts of greatness.]

I will outline what I see as the Internet 2.0 (as opposed to Web2.0, which Cuban sees as a stable application platform on the Internet), what confluence of factors will get us there, and how a more proper term might be The Next Internet, as it will be less of an upgrade and more of a technological revolution in its own right. [I will not be foolish enough to offer a time line]

How Uniforms became Schwag, and Schwag became Cool

2008-02-12T19:00:00.000-05:00

Schwag, for those of you who are not drinking some form of Kool-aid, is basically any form of stuff emblazoned with a company's logo. You can get a great idea as to the scope of Schwag by looking around Google Store. I don't even know what sonic rocks are.

At most internet companies, Schwag is a valuable commodity. There are limited edition t-shirts printed for the launch of a certain product or event. Teams and special groups will customize their own Schwag. Message boards proliferate with requests for certain hot items; Schwag is even used as a currency for favors and focus groups. Schwag wearing is not confined merely to the office, and you very often run into people around the Valley Schwaged out.

In my life, the first appearance of Schwag came in the form of either the local Postman or the beverage delivery man. They had shirts, jackets, and even shorts emblazoned with their corporate logos. Even today, UPS uniforms are a favorite Halloween costume. The most prominent historical appearance of Schwag on television may well be that of the Maytag repairman shown above (unless you consider the Kool-Aid man one big piece of Schwag, OHHH YEAH!).

If you look at the prominent forms of Schwag from back in the day, they may be more aptly called uniforms. These uniforms were associated with working class jobs, and were more of a requirement than a highly-prized privilege. Employees probably couldn't wait to get out of uniform (imagine having to wear that Maytag hat all day).

The most prominent forms of Schwag today are generally associated with either high-tech companies on the West Coast, Google being a prominent example, or Investment Banks on the East Coast, Goldman Sachs being a prominent example. These jobs are prestigious, high-paying, and white collar. Employees wear the Schwag with a sense of pride and distinction. They purposely wear it away from the workplace.

The transformation of Schwag is representative of a larger shift in the psychology of employment. It can largely be attributed to three factors:

1) The slow decay of the work/life balance. Jobs are no longer 9-5, but more along the line of 5-9. The workplace has become a home away from home. In order to justify the longer hours and greater sociological prominence of the workplace, employers have had to re-brand themselves as a home away from home and a source of personal identity and worth.

2) Companies working harder to brand themselves not only to consumers but also to employees. Fortune's 100 Best Places to Work For is a great example, and Google is the case study. The company's brand becomes a source of competitive advantage in the hiring wars. The brand is prominently represented through Schwag.

3) The rise of the corporation's position in society. It's not only employees who want to be wearing the Schwag of the latest hot company. See Robert B. Cialdini's Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion to understand why people want to be associated with successful companies and teams (and distance themselves from the so called "losers").

The influence of Schwag has become such a potent force in Corporate Cultures that I propose a new way to measure employee morale. Simply go to the campus of a leading company and note how many of the employees are wearing Schwag. I have no doubt that Google would rank high on this index. I wonder where MSFT would rank? What about MicroHoo!? Better or worse than Yahoo's current ranking? Any MBA professors out there interested in actually doing the study, feel free. Regardless, I'll be wearing my Plasma Shell Jacket tomorrow. Just because I don't work there anymore, doesn't mean I can't, does it?

[For those of you who were wondering, the word Schwag was mentioned in this post 15 times.]

The Blog is Open

2008-02-12T17:30:00.000-05:00

I am well aware how long it has taken for me to start blogging. As many of you may well know, I have spent the last 2 months moving back to New York from California. Thankfully, I would say that the process is now fully complete, and I am thus able to really dive into blogging.

I was planning on beginning to blog this week, but was really spurred forward by the Analyst opening at Union Square Ventures. They have creatively transformed the resume/cover letter process into what they loosely define as "online presence." This blog is going to serve as my online presence. I will thus be posting quite voraciously over the next day or two to make up for the lack of content, and to finally put on "paper" many of the ideas I have shared with a lot of you over the last year. I thank Union Square Ventures, and the forces of chance, for finally pushing me to blog. Regardless of whether the job opportunity works out, the motivation to really start blogging is a reward in itself. I also encourage any of you that are interested in the position to apply.

I have always been somewhat hesitant to translate my thoughts into concrete form. I'm not sure why. It could be the resulting permanence. Or maybe its the lack of maleability. In your mind, a thought never really has to be finished or finalized. "On paper" it achieves a certain stone form. You can always update a posting, or edit it later, but I guess it's just not the same. Regardless, it's time go get over that fear, if not for "posterity's sake," than for the sake of a really awesome job!

Welcome to the Home of my Blog!

2007-11-29T18:47:00.000-05:00

Hopefully, posts will be coming shortly and frequently. I am very excited to finally be blogging. I hope you will enjoy my words.

As I was thinking of what to name my site, for some reason the idea of the subjunctive popped into my head. I do not precisely remember where I picked up on the idea of the subjunctive (I can either credit my mother the linguist or my Spanish teacher from H.S.). Yet as "the language of hypotheticals/possibilities," it has always represented the beautifully mythical part of human expression to me (interestingly, in a way no real action can).

Prophecies themselves must often take the subjunctive form. It is our way of expressing the unknown, the uncertain, and my personal favorite, the possible. It's beauty lies not only in its ability to look forward, but also in its power to express alternate pasts. "If I would've." "Had I not." In fact, these two are quite related. Our power to express the lost possibilities of the past and how they have shaped our present, is the very source of our ability to realize the potential of the future.. Only from the depth of regret does change spring. Only from the realization that there were alternatives, can we say that there will be alternatives.

The subjunctive is the language of regret and possibilities, of hope and of change. I hope the ideas in this blog will use it often and with great fervor. I hope they will be an inspiration to you all.