Another tidbit from that Bionic Contact Lense Article

" The amount of investment in miniaturized projector technologies bares testimony to the prospects for this market and we have seen numerous prototypes showcased recently by the likes of Microvision, 3M, Texas Instruments, Explay, Neochroma, Digislide, Light Blue Optics and from research labs such as the Fraunhofer Institute for Photonic Microsystems . Though the microprojection area promises the ability to project a large screen on any flat surface, we have yet to see commercially available products and the technology won’t suit everyone, partially because they’re still not quite small enough, and partially because of privacy issues -- projecting delicate company information onto an airport terminal wall, for example, might not be a good idea. "

This is the first step towards the eventual full-sized holographic touchscreen that will be able to project into open space (not against the wall), and will boast translucence for privacy and clarity reasons. See video below for a demo of TI's mini projector.

An Update

First of all, I saw this article today "Gates Sees Diminished Role for Keyboards", and it seemed to perfectly fit the tone and theme of this piece. It's nice to know that Bill agrees.

Secondly, I apologize for the lag in finishing this piece, been a busy week, but it will be done by the end of the weekend. Hope you've enjoyed it so far.

Update: Here is another article that appeared recently that fits with the overall trend of this piece. Originally, when I was considering how to solve the screen problem, I was thinking along the lines of some sort of glasses (like the ones used in virtual reality), or some sort of piece inserted into the eye. I eventually abandoned this idea because I figured that if the overall idea is that this mobile computer will be with people at all times in all aspects, they don't want a precondition of use being visual impairment (something people don't like in general). Thus the holographic screen was the champion. I think the contact idea is a cool one, but I only see it being applied in military and industrial setting, not consumer.

The Next Internet - Part 4 - Redefinition of Computing

[Disclaimer: This blog is formatted to show newer stories first, and that generally makes sense, unless your writing a series with parts that build on each other. So please go back and read Part 1,2&3. Some of you may want to be cowboys and dive straight into part 4. I don't know if it'll make much sense, but enjoy.]

The redefinition of mobile computing is potentially the Tipping Point for the Next Internet. Although many of the [most difficult] aforementioned technological innovations will have to take place before mobile computing will truly be redefined; the redefinition will both be a stabilizing force insofar as integrating all the key factors, but will also be the crux in unleashing its true potential.

Hardware

Let us first begin by discussing what the future of mobile computing will look like. When the idea first came to mind, I described my Eureka moment to a friend as such: [pointing at my phone] "this will be your life," [pointing at my blue tooth headset] "this will be your phone."

There will no longer be a difference between a notebook computer and a cell phone [ I might even go so far as to argue that there won't be much distinction between desktop and notebook, except for very high-end machines]. In fact, the cellphone as a separate entity will cease to exist. You will be carrying around the power of today's desktop computer, and then some, in the palm of your hand. Cell phone calls will be carried over VOIP, much like Skype is used today. All you will need is your Bluetooth (or whatever the standard of the day shall be) headset to voice-dial, accept calls, and make appointments. [I'm sure that at this point the headset will potentially be redefined as well]

The text message will essentially be a thing of the past. It will be replaced by any form of communication that takes place on the net today, as everyone will be online 24/7. Either IM, twitter, tumblr, status updates. In fact, since there will no longer be a distinction between asynchronous and synchronous communication, there will be an invetiable a fusion between all of the previous communication forms and e-mail.

How is this all possible? It all goes back to the technological advances we discussed previously.

• The advancement of Moore's law via current and new methods (quantum and organic computing) will allow for a device as small as current mobile phones to pack twice the punch of today's notebooks.
  
• The critical factors will then be solving the tremendous amount of heat produced as these chips shrink and providing them with enough energy.
  
• We already outlined two potential solution to the energy problem. Either the emergence of new fuel cells that can either internally recharge or use the elements in the air itself to recharge, or many other innovations being explored in this field; or, the emergence of wireless electricity (see link in previous post), allowing devices to recharge without being plugged in when in range of the electrical transmitter. Wireless electricity is the most beneficial solution, as it further reduces the size of the device because a smaller battery can be used.
• As far as the heat problem, there is already a tremendous amount of progress in this area See here.
  
• The emergence of cloud computing will remove the need for a hard-drive installed within the device. Thus this further reduces product size, battery consumption, and increases mobility. [It also increases the importance of being connected at all times. Small Flash drives boasting high capacity will probably be included as emergency and backup storage].

The Holographic Touch Screen


Kate Moss Hologram Runway Show for Alexander Mcqueen

This is definitely where it begins to sound Trekkie, but it really is a lot more realistic than it seems (see video above), and it will be the most important factor in the redefinition of mobile computing. Imagine a device as small as today's mobile phones producing an image as crisp as a 20" LCD [already you may be seeing how television will be transformed as well]. No need for the IPhone's creative way of showing web pages. In fact, no need for any of the site's that are specifically tailored to the mobile web. The Next Internet will also be the Unified Net and the innovation of the holographic scree, which will drive the innovation of Mobile Computing, will be The Tipping Point.

The touchscreen functionality is actually even simpler, and it even exists today. Optical sensors, integrated with the holographic image renderer, will be able to tell what part of the screen (in thin air) that you are pressing. I presume an optical keyboard much like the one available today will also be used, although wireless peripherals may still be used in the home. Furthermore, the rise in voice-to-text accuracy will do away with much of the need for day to day keyboard use.

Finally, this device will incorporate biometrics, most likely in the form of fingerprint recognition, but there is also the potential for voice, and even iris scanning ( and eventually DNA and other forms). This will be crucial in safeguarding all the data that your new true all-in-one device can access, as well as in allowing this new device (which hereto shall be referred to as IFuture) to take on the many transformative uses that I envision.

I have decided to end this post here, and to use the next post to describe the transformation that this new IFuture will create. In that discussion we will look at the future of Television as well. The final post (or maybe two posts) will discuss what the web will look like in the New Internet as well as some interesting things that will emerge from it all. I apologize for continually stretching out the series, but I do it for the reader's enjoyment as otherwise the post's would get too long. Chew slowly and enjoy.

The Next Internet - Part 3 - Putting it all Together

[Disclaimer: This blog is formatted to show newer stories first, and that generally makes sense, unless your writing a series with parts that build on each other. So please go back and read Part 1&2. Some of you may want to be cowboys and dive straight into part 3. I don't know if it'll make much sense, but enjoy.]

When you put it all together, this is what the The Next Internet will look like:

Wireless high-bandwidth internet will be everywhere. No more dead-zones. No more streaming problems. No more debates about the merits of 3G. As Mark Cuban pointed out, this is probably the most important development, as all other factors depend on it.

Almost every electronic device you can think of will be connected to the internet via their own IP protocols, and will be able to interact with other devices. Non-electronic devices will be able to communicate with the internet via RFID tags, but on a more limited basis.

Imagine this: Your alarm-clock goes off and the coffee maker starts while your personalized electronic paper is delivered to your e-book reader (or your Microsoft Surface) and all other screens in your home. Your toothbrush is aware of what you ate for breakfast and uses the proper cleaning mode. Your car is activated as you leave your home, and adjusts itself based on the current weather report.

Anything and everything that is connected will be locatable. There are literally thousands of innovations that will come of this, the most obvious one being location based advertising. There will be tremendous effects in terms of social interaction as well. Finally, to continue from the previous example, as you pull into your driveway after a long day of work, your shower or maybe your oven will automatically start. If you want to alter something from your usual setting, simply punch it into the screen in your car.

Every single individual will have the equivalent of an online SS#, which will be their ID for almost every action in life, both on and off the net ( there will be little if anything that is off the net). This ID will obviously be the default login for all your web-activity, but will also be used when making purchases at brick and mortar stores, or even possibly when receiving a parking ticket. This ID will be the key in allowing all devices associated with the actual YOU to interact. In the previous example, your car and home can only communicate because they are registered under your ID. These ID's will be managed by a few OpenID providers, but there will be little if any difference between them. An ID from any provider will work in all the same ways and places.

The idea of hard-drives within devices will become virtually obsolete except for some amount of emergency flash storage (which will still be rather large in capacity but small in size). Almost all data will be stored in the cloud. Every individual, via their ID, will have an allocated amount of storage in the cloud for FREE. This will be the default storage for all their files, including potentially their software and even operating system. This storage will either be managed by the very same OpenID providers, or in some sort of partnership with the storage companies (Amazon is making strides in this area already). Furthermore, all data generated from your activities with anything connected to the net (almost everything) will be stored here. This will require a massive amount of protocols, and new data types, but I have no doubt that it will be the easy part. The hard part will be the privacy concerns.

Possibly the most revolutionary part of the Next Internet will be its implications on mobile computing. Currently, aside from the lack of true high bandwidth wireless, the greatest obstacles preventing innovation in the mobile category are screen size and battery life. There is only so big a screen you can give a mobile device and still call it mobile. The IPhone took an innovative approach to this problem via a full touchscreen and a browser that simulates a desktop layout. Although this is a fantastic solution for the short term, it is merely a temporary fix. Yet, even the IPhone has been hampered by battery life problems. The more computing power our hand held devices have, the more energy they require. Unfortunately, there is no analogous Moore's law in the world of electro-chemistry.

I will continue with the future of Mobile Computing and Television in the next post. I will then conclude my thoughts in what will be the 5th and final part of this series. After I conclude this series, I will start to write more about the products, events, and ideas of today. I had to get this grand scheme out of my system before I could dig into the present. Furthermore, the possible future is often a good framework through which to evaluate where we are, who is positioned to succeed going forward, and who will fall behind.

The Next Internet - Part 2 - Prerequisites

[Disclaimer: This blog is formatted to show newer stories first, and that generally makes sense, unless your writing a series with parts that build on each other. So please go back and read Part 1. Some of you may want to be cowboys and dive straight into part 2. I don't know if it'll make as much sense, but whatever makes you happy.]

The Next Internet, will be driven by the following connectivity factors:

1. Greater overall global bandwidth and Cuban's greater throughput to homes, coupled with:
   
2. The emergence of a truly global blanket of wireless coverage ( i.e. 700 Mhz for the US).
3. Almost every single thing you know (and thus idea/transaction) being online via:
• IP connectivity for everything you can imagine.
• The emergence of cost-effective and integrated RFID.
4. A few OpenID providers managing all logins and personal data.
5. The emergence of cloud computing (already in progress).
6. The prevalence of GPS or other location based tracking.
   

The following hardware factors will be key drivers:

1. Continued reduction in chip sizes with concurrent reduction of the heat problem.
   
2. A solution to the "my cell battery runs out in 5 seconds when I surf the net" problem, via wireless electricity or new fuel cells. [ Full paper on wireless electricity]
   
3. The emergence of holographic (what some call volumetric) touchscreen technology [bare with me].
   
4. Complete redefinition of mobile computing and telephony due to all of the above.
5. The emergence of biometrics in our everyday lives (see IBM's fingerprint password).
   

The following will be the key psychological drivers:

1. A redefinition of privacy (Facebook has begun this transformation).
2. A change in our perception of currency (e-currency).

Some of these factors are certainly prerequisites to others. For cloud computing to truly thrive, the bandwidth and wireless requirements will have to be met. The battery and small screen problems will have to be solved for the redefinition of mobile computing. I portend that these developments will follow the pattern I mentioned in the last post.

The Next Internet - Part 1 - Introduction

Mark Cuban [Disclaimer: To paraphrase the sentiments of my French friend, "I love this guy." Just see the picture to the left.] is constantly informing us on his blog that the internet is dead. He did so most recently on February 10th with his post titled, " The Internet is Officially Dead & Boring." He argued it most eloquently in a post on Aug 24th 2007, in which he concluded:

"So, let me repeat, The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead for the foreseeable future. The Internet is boring. That is not a bad thing. In fact its easy to make the argument that its a great thing. That it has become the utility that the people who worked to get it started firmly believed it would. That it finally is the platform for any number of mundane applications that are easy to write and that anyone can use and trust."

He also makes sure that people will not misconstrue the implications of his statement when he states, "Just as a reminder to some, Myspace, Facebook, Youtube, etc are not the Internet. They are software applications that run on the Internet. Just like MicroSoft Excel is a software application that runs on MicroSoft and Apple operating systems." To summarize his idea: the changes are occurring on the Internet, not to the Internet.

I happen to agree with Mark in terms of the Internet of today. I even somewhat agree with what he thinks is the greatest barrier to innovation when he writes, " The days of the Internet creating explosively exciting ideas are dead. They are dead until bandwidth throughput to the home reaches far higher numbers than the vast majority of broadband users get today." He sees it as a bandwidth issue, and that it certainly is. But it is also about so much more.

The factors that are going to drive the next wave of innovation are already being shaped. When we talk about innovation we often hear the words "wave", "period", or "burst" being used and that is no coincidence. Most great inventions will seemingly stagnate for a period of time from their original "burst." They follow a pattern often seen in nature referred to as a J-Curve. Others describe this effect using analogies from the ideas of entropy and chaos in physics. What they are all getting at is that the period of stagnation is merely an illusion. It is Taleb's black-box of history.

In reality, these are periods of nascent ideas and disjointed innovation. The building blocks for the next wave are being shaped, often by companies unaware of each other, and probably unaware of the impact they will have. Startups are experimenting and learning from every failure. The success of one factor (could be a few simultaneously, as it often is) is that final straw with the disproportionate effect, whether it be a successful innovation, government policy, or cultural shift.

It will be precisely the next step that another 5 companies were unknowingly waiting for to become viable. A chain effect is unleashed. Suddenly, innovators in completely unrelated fields, realize, that the landscape shift they needed has come from where they least expected. The next "wave" is unleashed. It too will stabilize 5-10 years out. But, as long as there are smart people, an entrepreneurial spirit, and fair reward for one's work, Innovation never stops.

[A great example of this innovation process is evidenced by the experience of the Human Genome Project, which saw rapid achievements at the tail-end after a long period of stagnation. It is important to realize that failures, if studied, are truly incremental learnings; after a certain critical point, they can be pieced together to achieve seemingly sudden bursts of greatness.]

I will outline what I see as the Internet 2.0 (as opposed to Web2.0, which Cuban sees as a stable application platform on the Internet), what confluence of factors will get us there, and how a more proper term might be The Next Internet, as it will be less of an upgrade and more of a technological revolution in its own right. [I will not be foolish enough to offer a time line]

How Uniforms became Schwag, and Schwag became Cool

Schwag, for those of you who are not drinking some form of Kool-aid, is basically any form of stuff emblazoned with a company's logo. You can get a great idea as to the scope of Schwag by looking around Google Store. I don't even know what sonic rocks are.

At most internet companies, Schwag is a valuable commodity. There are limited edition t-shirts printed for the launch of a certain product or event. Teams and special groups will customize their own Schwag. Message boards proliferate with requests for certain hot items; Schwag is even used as a currency for favors and focus groups. Schwag wearing is not confined merely to the office, and you very often run into people around the Valley Schwaged out.

In my life, the first appearance of Schwag came in the form of either the local Postman or the beverage delivery man. They had shirts, jackets, and even shorts emblazoned with their corporate logos. Even today, UPS uniforms are a favorite Halloween costume. The most prominent historical appearance of Schwag on television may well be that of the Maytag repairman shown above (unless you consider the Kool-Aid man one big piece of Schwag, OHHH YEAH!).

If you look at the prominent forms of Schwag from back in the day, they may be more aptly called uniforms. These uniforms were associated with working class jobs, and were more of a requirement than a highly-prized privilege. Employees probably couldn't wait to get out of uniform (imagine having to wear that Maytag hat all day).

The most prominent forms of Schwag today are generally associated with either high-tech companies on the West Coast, Google being a prominent example, or Investment Banks on the East Coast, Goldman Sachs being a prominent example. These jobs are prestigious, high-paying, and white collar. Employees wear the Schwag with a sense of pride and distinction. They purposely wear it away from the workplace.

The transformation of Schwag is representative of a larger shift in the psychology of employment. It can largely be attributed to three factors:

1) The slow decay of the work/life balance. Jobs are no longer 9-5, but more along the line of 5-9. The workplace has become a home away from home. In order to justify the longer hours and greater sociological prominence of the workplace, employers have had to re-brand themselves as a home away from home and a source of personal identity and worth.

2) Companies working harder to brand themselves not only to consumers but also to employees. Fortune's 100 Best Places to Work For is a great example, and Google is the case study. The company's brand becomes a source of competitive advantage in the hiring wars. The brand is prominently represented through Schwag.

3) The rise of the corporation's position in society. It's not only employees who want to be wearing the Schwag of the latest hot company. See Robert B. Cialdini's Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion to understand why people want to be associated with successful companies and teams (and distance themselves from the so called "losers").

The influence of Schwag has become such a potent force in Corporate Cultures that I propose a new way to measure employee morale. Simply go to the campus of a leading company and note how many of the employees are wearing Schwag. I have no doubt that Google would rank high on this index. I wonder where MSFT would rank? What about MicroHoo!? Better or worse than Yahoo's current ranking? Any MBA professors out there interested in actually doing the study, feel free. Regardless, I'll be wearing my Plasma Shell Jacket tomorrow. Just because I don't work there anymore, doesn't mean I can't, does it?

[For those of you who were wondering, the word Schwag was mentioned in this post 15 times.]

The Blog is Open

I am well aware how long it has taken for me to start blogging. As many of you may well know, I have spent the last 2 months moving back to New York from California. Thankfully, I would say that the process is now fully complete, and I am thus able to really dive into blogging.

I was planning on beginning to blog this week, but was really spurred forward by the Analyst opening at Union Square Ventures. They have creatively transformed the resume/cover letter process into what they loosely define as "online presence." This blog is going to serve as my online presence. I will thus be posting quite voraciously over the next day or two to make up for the lack of content, and to finally put on "paper" many of the ideas I have shared with a lot of you over the last year. I thank Union Square Ventures, and the forces of chance, for finally pushing me to blog. Regardless of whether the job opportunity works out, the motivation to really start blogging is a reward in itself. I also encourage any of you that are interested in the position to apply.

I have always been somewhat hesitant to translate my thoughts into concrete form. I'm not sure why. It could be the resulting permanence. Or maybe its the lack of maleability. In your mind, a thought never really has to be finished or finalized. "On paper" it achieves a certain stone form. You can always update a posting, or edit it later, but I guess it's just not the same. Regardless, it's time go get over that fear, if not for "posterity's sake," than for the sake of a really awesome job!