Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The Next Internet - Part 2 - Prerequisites

[Disclaimer: This blog is formatted to show newer stories first, and that generally makes sense, unless your writing a series with parts that build on each other. So please go back and read Part 1. Some of you may want to be cowboys and dive straight into part 2. I don't know if it'll make as much sense, but whatever makes you happy.]

The Next Internet, will be driven by the following connectivity factors:
  1. Greater overall global bandwidth and Cuban's greater throughput to homes, coupled with:
  2. The emergence of a truly global blanket of wireless coverage ( i.e. 700 Mhz for the US).
  3. Almost every single thing you know (and thus idea/transaction) being online via:
    • IP connectivity for everything you can imagine.
    • The emergence of cost-effective and integrated RFID.
  4. A few OpenID providers managing all logins and personal data.
  5. The emergence of cloud computing (already in progress).
  6. The prevalence of GPS or other location based tracking.
The following hardware factors will be key drivers:
  1. Continued reduction in chip sizes with concurrent reduction of the heat problem.
  2. A solution to the "my cell battery runs out in 5 seconds when I surf the net" problem, via wireless electricity or new fuel cells. [ Full paper on wireless electricity]
  3. The emergence of holographic (what some call volumetric) touchscreen technology [bare with me].
  4. Complete redefinition of mobile computing and telephony due to all of the above.
  5. The emergence of biometrics in our everyday lives (see IBM's fingerprint password).
The following will be the key psychological drivers:
  1. A redefinition of privacy (Facebook has begun this transformation).
  2. A change in our perception of currency (e-currency).
Some of these factors are certainly prerequisites to others. For cloud computing to truly thrive, the bandwidth and wireless requirements will have to be met. The battery and small screen problems will have to be solved for the redefinition of mobile computing. I portend that these developments will follow the pattern I mentioned in the last post.

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